editorialIy /peaking Where Are the Future Chemists? The demographers tell us that enrollments in higher education are expected to peak in 1981-82 and then drop steadily for the next 15 to 16 years. We are also told that the birthrate tends to follow a 16-year cycle and that we are now at or near the bottom of the birthrate per capita projection. According to these arguments we are about to enter another baby boom, which means that in 16 years these people will begin to enter high school and subsequently some fraction of them will enter the system of higher education. At this point in time, the apogee of the present cycle, it is generally thought that a necessary precursor for "unlimited opportunity and the good life," which is almost always interpreted as a "good high-paying job," involves obtaining credentials from the current educational system. Indeed, in the late 1960's statistics showed that a college graduate could expect a salary advantage of about 25% over a non-graduate. Such figures became the norm in the early 1970's and students came to expect this advantage as a matter of course. Perhaps this advantage was a major motivating factor for many of the students presently enrolled in colleges and universities. The monetary advantage has, however, fallen precipitously since 1972 and now stands probably at less than 10%.Thoughtful persons recognize the fallacy in using proported lifetime earnings or other financial arguments as the sole reasons for going to college. There is ample evidence that students benefit from attending colleges in many ways. For example, they develop a more positive self image, a greater sense of intellectual and interpersonal competence, and a more tolerant attitude toward others. While a certain minimum education has always been required for those seeking access to the professions, the baccalaureate degree has become the filter point for many employers in the recent past. Our object here is not to debate the wisdom of using the educational system in this way, but rather to accept the situation at face value and address the question of potential sources of future chemists. Chemistry, as one of the physical sciences, is currently among those disciplines for which the demand for its graduates (at all levels) exceeds the supply. That employers are interested in immediately applicable skills is illustrated by the fact that 93 percent of the job offers made to college seniors last year went to only 37 percent of the graduates, the latter group comprising, in decreasing order of employer interest: engineers, business majors, and science and mathematics majors. Although majors in humanities and social sciences constituted 43 percent of the graduating class, they received only four percent of the.job offers made hy on-campus recruitingprograms. Such gross statistics are the basis for the perceived great imbalance between the supply and demand for specific majors. Employers and graduate programs are in direct competition for the same individuals hut graduate programs have traditionally provided the people who will carry on the future development of the basic disciplines such as chemistry. Although the baccalaurate pool is a t a maximum, the proportion of chemistry-oriented students has declined significantly. There are also changes occurring within students themselves that
affect the composition of the pool. For example, in the last five years there ha8 been a marked trend away from college, among high school graduates from upper and middle-income families. Some students from backerounds which have tvoicallv been -~~ associated with college entiance now shun the standard college education; they choose instead to attend vocational schools to acquire skills that are directly employable or enter the job market directly. What does this mean with respect to future chemists? In the immediate future, the supply of chemists obviously must come from the current pool of students. There is fierce competition from industry and other professions for the scienceoriented students. One could consider tapping the pool of graduating seniors in the humanities using a carefully designed special masters program that would provide them with a chemical background equivalent to that presented in the chemistry undergraduate program. With careful screening and a well-thought-out program that eliminates much of the redundancy of the undergraduate program, a mature, intellectually capable student who majored in the humanities could become an important contribute; to a technologically oriented society. Indeed, the early training of such students in the humanities could establish the foundation for introducing values into a technologically oriented society. For further on in the future, we need to attract more potential chemistry students at the middle and secondary level and perhaps even a t the primary school level. There must be established an outreach program that eliminates potential impediments for students at these educational levels hv encourarinr, . - and perhaps in some instances even providing for, quality science and mathematics instruction for capahle students who are interested in these subjects. We cannot in good conscience permit too many years to go by during which many students come to colleges and universities deficient in mathematical skills and devoid of even a rudimentary exposure to simple ~
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kducated as to whata career in science-especially chemistry-is about and why they should consider this a possible career goal. The statistics suggest that there is currently a great disparity between the supply and the demand for persons who have the ability to grasp and understand sciences and mathematics and apply decision-making skills. There is every reason to expect that such individuals will continue to be needed in a world which is becoming increasingly more denendent uDon technoloev. Thus, the brisk competition for erwise undertake advanced stud;. We must devise means to compete successfully with the immediate attraction of industry for the minds that are needed to continue the development of chemistry, and to engage pre-college students to tell them of the excitement of chemistry and the rewarding- -personal experiences available to them in the field. JJL
Volume 59
Number 2
February 1982
81
