has profound implications for business in the longer run. The 1980's, he believes, will be a period of transition into a postindustrial world with only a fifth of the work force employed in manufacturing. One characteristic of this postindustrial world will be a sharp drop in birth rates, he claims, as a result both of advances in contraceptive technology and a shift in personal preferences toward smaller families. The U.S., he thinks, is headed toward zero population growth and a period during which the current focus on youth will give way to a greater emphasis on family formation. Even so, in an economy enjoying unlimited energy, the U.S. could increase its overall wealth and national wellbeing indefinitely; growth in productivity and in the labor force would offset a drop in the number of hours people worked. But because we probably can't meet all our demands for energy, Mr. Gordon says, this image of a promised land of abundance may well fade into one of two alternatives: a blundering world that attempts to get along with temporary, make-do solutions to energy shortages—putting a bandage on a hemorrhage—or a war-againstenergy world that strives to overcome basic energy problems. Mr. Gordon expects, in any event, that as a result the intensity of environmental and consumer pressures on business may diminish. Another futures researcher is more skeptical about these points, however. Dr. Roy Amara, president of Institute for the Future, Menlo Park, Calif., is convinced that concern about the environment will continue unabated, with stringent standards being set to control pollution without consideration of all the cost/benefit trade-offs between environmental protection and energy needs. However, Dr. Amara is hopeful that lack of energy will be a less serious problem than many people now fear. He thinks that a 10 to 15% reduction in energy supplies can be absorbed without fundamentally slowing economic growth, although he sees some economic slack developing during a period of transition and adaption to lower supplies. And by 1980, he believes, energy will again be adequate. Basing his views on Project Aware, a corporation-supported study in which Institute for the Future is attempting to identify and track the major technological, economic, and social trends likely to affect business in the latter part of the next decade, Dr. Amara says that consumerism, too, is here to stay. He looks for increased regulation of advertising, new restrictions on product labeling, requirements for product performance guarantees, and the like. He also figures that the social responsibilities of corporations will continue to be a major issue; companies can expect no letup in public scrutiny of their operations.
Dr. Amara sees some strong messages coming through from Project Aware's findings to date about the future business and social climate. There is a growing mismatch, for one thing, between public expectations and the performance of public and private institutions. An apparent inability of institutions to adapt to changing conditions, too, has led to growing distrust of government, business, and educational organizations. Meanwhile, society's heightened complexity and a growing awareness of the limitations of continued growth have resulted in more concern about our ability to understand or control change. Some of the issues that society must deal with in the future were spelled out by Dr. Olaf Helmer, a professor of futures research at the University of Southern California. Dr. Helmer thinks that business planners must make a distinction between those issues over which neither they nor decision makers in the public sector have much control —including some political events and scientific breakthroughs—and those that depend directly on how certain issues are resolved through public action. Among the former are advances in medical care, declining birth rates, a revolution in computer and communications technology, a guaranteed minimum income, and an easing of world food shortages, says the futures research professor. Issues that future planners and policy makers will have to grapple with, on the other hand, include such questions as: In the light of rising productivity, should the U.S. opt for a full-employment economy, seeking out new pursuits to keep its work force busy, or for one more oriented toward leisure activities? What should be the nation's priorities between domestic and foreign pursuits—international cooperation or an isolationist "fortress America" husbanding its own natural resources? Should government become more centralized to cope effectively with growing complexity and rapid change in society, or more decentralized to overcome public alienation and frustration? Should public planning focus on continuing technological and economic expansion or, in a resource-limited and pollution-prone environment, toward a leveling off of growth? Do the ethics generated in competitive markets increasingly put the public interest in jeopardy, or can big business, labor, and government reform themselves to give greater attention to public interest? While consideration of such questions is primarily the function of planners in the public sector, says Dr. Helmer, these questions are "also the business of the private sector, both passively, in that no long-range planning effort can afford to ignore them, and actively, in that the policies and actions of our corporate leaders inevitably will affect our public choices."
Drake: no problem with hydrocarbons
Pennwalt not worried over energy crisis The energy crisis, which has chemical industry executives worried about their feedstock and fuel supplies and has undercut investors' confidence in chemical company stocks, doesn't seem to seriously concern at least one major chemical producer, Pennwalt Corp. Company board chairman and president William P. Drake told Philadelphia financial analysts late last month that only 6.6% of Pennwalt's worldwide sales next year will come from products dependent on hydrocarbons as feedstocks. "Furthermore," he says, "Pennwalt's maximum consolidated sales exposure to customers who are highly dependent upon hydrocarbon feedstocks will amount to less than 11% of our projected 1974 sales." Mr. Drake also believes that the company is "in relatively good shape" as to energy consumption. "Our greatest demand for energy is in the form of electricity used primarily for the production of chlorine, caustic soda, and chlorates," he told the security analysts. "Here again, our dependency upon hydrocarbons is minimal. Our major source of electricity is derived from hydroelectric power and coal." Mr. Drake does caution, however, that Pennwalt may have to face shortages or delays in the delivery of chemical intermediates or parts next year. The company's earning per share of stock this year will be up "somewhat better t h a n " the 30% gain it rang up last year over 1971, Mr. Drake forecasts. In 1972, Pennwalt earned $16.1 million ($1.58 a share) on sales of $441.0 million. Through the first nine months of this year, earnings per share were up 45% to $1.55. The company has set as its goal for 1978 annual sales of $750 million, Mr. Drake adds. That represents a growth for its sales of about 9% a year from last year's level.
Dec. 10, 1973C&EN
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