some parts of the economy are showing signs of strain and fatigue. Mr. Sonnecken said at a Society of the Plastics Industry meeting in New York's Waldorf Astoria Hotel that the economy is now beginning to slow down. Since 1961, consumers have been spending more heavily and saving less. However, Mr. Sonnecken says, "We may now see the free-spending consumer become more selective in what he does with his income, and possibly step up his rate of savings." Between the first and third quarters of this year, durable goods sales dropped $630 million. And this year's gain in sales of soft goods was half that of 1965. In terms of current dollars and with allowances for further inflation, a gross national product (GNP) of a trillion dollars is a very real prospect in the early 1970 , s, Mr. Sonnecken says. All projections for the 1960's have suggested that the last half of the decade would receive a special stimulus from the surge in family formations beginning about now. The effect of this surge has been temporarily supressed by tight money. Says Mr. Sonnecken, "Very likely, however, when capital spending has been cooled off some, and money becomes more available, this force will burst forth." In this decade, the first year or two were subnormal with respect to GNP growth. The next four were abnormally high. He says that, barring catastrophes of war or politics, GNP could grow by 5 to 6% per year for the next four years. Relating all this to the plastics industry, Mr. Sonnecken says that this growth is an encouraging prospect. He says that as a growth industry, the plastics industry has an enviable relationship to the growth of the economy: • When the growth of the economy is subnormal, the plastics industry's growth is fast. • When the economy's growth is normal, the plastics industry grows very fast. • And when the economy's growth is abnormally high, the plastics industry grows incredibly fast. Between now and 1970, the plastics industry should grow very fast, says Mr. Sonnecken.
NYC weighs new building code Synthetic and other new building materials, long blocked by rigid construction codes, face a relatively fast, direct route to acceptance in New York City if the City Council passes a mammoth proposed new building code. The 1400-page document, which completely revises the city's construction
guidelines, is the product of four and a half years of labor (costing $1.1 million) spearheaded by the Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn. Framers of the code—representing Brooklyn Polytechnic, the construction industry, and city agencies—met in Washington last week to give an "experience report" at a conference of the Building Research Institute. The writers presented the history of the new code up to the present interim period. The great tome is now being reviewed by city agencies and may clear Mayor Lindsay's office by the end of the year. City Council action could follow early in 1967. Putting the new code together was a "once-in-a-lifetime" effort, according to speaker John F. Hennessy, president of Syska and Hennessy, Inc. (consulting firm), and chairman of an industry advisory committee aiding Mr. Brooklyn Polytechnic's staff. Hennessy, himself a mechanical engineer, went on to describe the current plight of new materials which are controlled by the city's Board of Standards and Appeals. In current practice, the Board examines each new material on a job-byjob basis. Approval for one building project, which can take 18 months to two years, does not mean acceptance for other construction unless the city's administrative code for construction is amended by the City Council. It may take another two years to get an amendment. Thus, Mr. Hennessy says, "The problem of securing the approval was so burdensome it discouraged manufacturers from applying." The new code would streamline the acceptance process by setting standards on a performance basis instead of product by product. The architect or engineer could accept test-proved new materials for a specific project, although final approval would rest with the building department. Exceptions to this procedure would be materials in no way covered by performance standards in the code. These would revert to the Board of Standards and Appeals. The upshot of the new provisions is that "first acceptance of new materials will be a vastly simpler affair in the future," according to chief of Brooklyn Polytechnic's executive revision board, Charles E. S chaffner. Particular new materials allowed for the first time under the proposed code include plastic piping for exposed or accessible cold water, drainage, and ventilation systems; Types K and L copper tubing for water conveyance; service-weight cast-iron soil pipe in drainage and ventilation; asbestos cement sewer pipe, concrete, and tile drainage pipe for outside drainage and house sewers; slow-burning plas-
tics for glazing (with height limitations); and prestressed and precast concrete. Other materials now in use have been accorded more permissive standards. For instance, insulation material now required to back up curtain walls on buildings would be largely eliminated on structures 60 feet away from other buildings. Fire curtains in theaters could be replaced with "deluge" sprinklers and ventilation. In addition, a new definition of noncombustible materials—including certain gypsum and wood materials, among others—will, if passed, encourage wider variety in structural composition, the Polytechnic team states. On the other hand, the new code also provides tougher measures on use of interior materials with high flame characteristics. To keep the new code up to date as future technology develops and new building materials appear, the code writers propose establishment of a special city building code commission. The seven-membered group would be able to adopt, repeal, and amend the building code. Materials not touched on by the code and appeals on building authority rulings would continue to be settled by the Board of Standards and Appeals. Results of the new code measures, Dean S chaff ner expects, will include a 1 to 10% reduction in construction costs in New York City, more freedom and operational control for the individual architect and engineer, drastically increased administration efficiency, accelerated adjustment to technological progress, and possible increased tax revenue for the city.
Plant food up in Latin America Latin American farmers will use more than twice as much fertilizer this year as they did five years ago. And they will use almost twice as much again within the next five years, according to Paul de la Llama, South American sales manager for International Minerals & Chemical Corp. Mr. de la Llama says 1971 plant nutrient consumption in Latin America should reach 1.2 million tons of nitrogen, 1.1 million tons of phosphorus (as P 2 0 5 ), and 625,000 tons of potash (as K 2 0). This rate of consumption will demand imports of nearly 600,000 tons of phosphate and more than 500,000 tons of potash to the area, he said at an international management symposium held by IMC at its Skokie, 111., headquarters. The IMC representative says that Latin America, from the U.S.-Mexican border to the southern part of ArgenNOV. 21, 1966 C&EN
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tina, is even now trying to feed its fast growing population. Many long-entrenched social and political problems remain. But major government programs shifting national emphasis from heavy industry to agriculture, growing government loan programs to farmers, and an upsurge of fertilizer production capacity are all signs of a promised boost in food output. In many areas, such as Brazil, new land can be opened for farming. But this takes time as it means new transportation systems. So, Mr. de la Llama points out, the immediate need is to increase production through more intensive cultivation of the land now in use. But Latin America today, with 5% of the world's cultivated land and 6% of the population, use only 2% of world fertilizer. Triggering the push in agriculture is the pressure of a growing population, rising 2.9% per year. At this rate, today's 225 million will be close to 350 million by 1980. Mr. de la Llama points out that Latin American agriculture has failed to keep pace with population. The area was once a major food exporter; now it imports food. For example, Venezuela today imports 70% of its food. The social and political setup in much of rural Latin America is the cause of this agricultural lag. Mr. de la Llama says much of the land is still in large, inefficient holdings set up in colonial times. Other land is in family plots too small for optimum use. In addition, lack of credit and education for farmers has slowed farm improvement. But much is now being done, particularly at the government level. New agricultural programs to help farmers directly are being set up. Old programs are being expanded. In Mexico, for instance, a particularly bright spot on the Latin American agricultural scene, agricultural and livestock loans extended by government banks have grown five-fold in the past decade. And in Argentina, the government has recently started offering farmers a tax deduction amounting to twice the amount of money spent on fertilizer. Meanwhile, the Colombian government is giving farmers credit for fertilizer purchases. Still another example of the growing government programs is Uruguay, which is subsidizing fertilizer manufacturers, Mr. de la Llama adds. Foreign aid money is also playing a role. U.S. money, provided through the Agency for International Development, is being devoted to farmer credits. In Ecuador alone, $18 million is being made available to help farmers help themselves. Almost all of Latin America will be affected by growing fertilizer capacity. 22 C&EN NOV. 21, 1966
For instance, in Mexico, nitrogen capacity will double to 300,000 tons per year by 1970. In Argentina, PETROSUR is building a urea plant and an ammonia plant. Due on stream next year, each will have a capacity of 50,000 tons per year. PETROSUR is composed of a group of American investors, Shell Oil, and some local capital. In the Caribbean area, affiliates of International Petroleum Co., a subsidiary of Standard Oil Co. (N.J.), are building fertilizer facilities in Costa Rica, Salvador, Colombia, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica. In Chile, another superphosphate plant has been approved and will be on stream by 1968. A large nitrogen fertilizer plant is planned for northern Peru. In Brazil, a new ammonia complex with a capacity of 140,000 tons per year of fertilizer is being planned. In Venezuela, the fertilizer section of the government-owned Instituto Venezolano de la Petroquimica is being rapidly expanded. In Colombia, Petroquimica del Atlantico is planning a nitrogen complex involving a 1000 ton-per-day ammonia plant. However, Mr. de la Llama points out, all efforts to improve farming in Latin America are taking place against continuing serious problems. These include inflation, political instability, and a still largely illiterate farm population. But he is confident that steady agricultural progress will continue. As he puts it, "Hunger does not wait for any reason."
AFL-CI0 urges Carbide boycott The AFL-CIO executive council, meeting in Washington last week, urged the nation's trade union members and the general public not to buy Union Carbide's consumer products. Mentioned specifically as being under the boycott are Prestone antifreeze, Eveready batteries, Bakelite, Glad Bags, and Englander mattresses and sofa beds. Carbide had no comment at press time. The council said that 6500 striking workers at 10 Carbide plants and the 1200 other workers locked out of the Alloy, W.Va., plant have its full support (C&EN, Sept. 12, page 2 7 ) . It says the struggle is "an important part of the continuing effort to achieve economic justice in huge, nationwide corporations which have frustrated that goal in the past by playing one union off against others." According to the council, Union Carbide has for years insisted upon making unilateral decisions on pensions, insurance, wage rates, vacations, and holidays, even though at least 50 of its plants are organized.
Technology still on stage Prime Minister Harold Wilson's call last week in London for "a new technological community" in Europe evoked once again the so-called technology gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Mr. Wilson's larger theme (at the Lord Mayor's Banquet) was Britain's interest in joining the European Economic Community. And the Six, like the U.K., face the problem described by chairman Paul Chambers of Imperial Chemical Industries: "Unless the present situation is changed, we shall almost certainly see increasing world domination of all science-based industries by the U.S. The gap was first documented just a year ago by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. One European approach to the problem is to form bigger units within countries. Also, E E C is working on legislation designed to unravel the complexities of cross-border mergers. This summer saw the formation (by 32 charter members) of the European Industrial Research Management Association. Its purpose: "to enable leading science- and technology-based firms to consult regularly on problems of research management . . . ." Root causes are not being ignored. The Poignant report on education found that E E C schools do not produce enough graduates to meet the community's economic needs and will not be able to do so for at least a decade. French educator Raymond Poignant said that the E E C educational systems were weakest in science and technology. The study, made by an international group of educators, said also that the Six must curtail brainpower waste by making higher education available to the working class.
Britain's Harold Wilson The gap evoked again
