Chemical and Engineering News 1155—16th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 Acting Editor: Richard L. Kenyon Managing Editor: Michael Heylin Assistant Managing Editors: David M. Kiefer, James H. Krieger, Donald J. Soisson Senior Editor: Earl V. Anderson (New York) Senior Associate Editor: Howard J. Sanders Staff Writer: Joseph Haggin Associate Editor: Ernest L. Carpenter Assistant Editors: Janice R. Long, P. Christopher Murray, Rebecca L. Rawls, Richard J. Seltzer Editorial Assistant: Theresa L. Rome Editing Services: Joyce A. Richards (Head) Editorial Reference: Barbara A. Gallagher (Head) Graphics and Production: Bacil Guiley (Head). Leroy Corcoran (Manager). Norman W. Favin (Art Director). John V. Sinnett (Designer). Linda McKnight, Gerald Quinn (Artists). NEWS B U R E A U S : New York: William F. Fallwell (Head). Chicago: Ward Worthy (Head). Houston: Bruce F. Greek (Head). Washington: Fred H. Zerkel (Head), Thomas E. Feare (Associate Editor) FOREIGN BUREAUS: London: Dermot A. O'Sullivan (Head). Tokyo: Michael K. McAbee (Head) ADVISORY BOARD: Alfred E. Brown, Marcia Coleman, Arthur W. Galston, Derek P. Gregory, James D. Idol, Jr., Gerald D. Laubach, Paul F. Oreffice, Edward R. Thornton, Herbert L. Toor, M . K e n t Wilson Published by AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY Robert W. Cairns, Executive Director Division of Public Affairs and Communication Richard L. Kenyon, Director Arthur Poulos, Editorial Promotion EDITORIAL BOARD: Mary L. Good (Chairman), Herman S. Bloch, Bryce Crawford, Jr., Robert W. Parry, B. R. Stanerson; PresidentElect: William J. Bailey; Representative, Council Publications Committee: Arthur Fry; PastPresident: Alan C. Nixon © Copyright 1974, American Chemical Society Subscription Service: Send all new and renewal subscriptions with payment to: Office of the Controller, 1155—16th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036. All correspondence and telephone calls regarding changes of address, claims for missing issues, subscription service, status of records and accounts should be directed to: Manager, Membership and Subscription Services, American Chemical Society, P.O. Box 3337, Columbus, Ohio 43210; telephone 614-421-7230. On changes of address, include both old and new addresses with ZIP code numbers, accompanied by mailing label from a recent issue. Allow four weeks for change to become effective. Claims for missing numbers will not be allowed if received more than 60 days from date of issue plus time normally required for postal delivery of journal and claim; if loss was due to failure of notice of change of address to be received before the date specified above; or if reason for claim is "issue missing from files." Subscription Rates 1974: nonmembers, U.S. and Canada, 1 yr. $9.00, 2 yr. $15, 3 yr. $19; foreign $16, $30, $43. Postage: Canada, Pan American Union, $4.00; foreign $5.00. Air freight rates available on request. Single copies: Current $0.50. Rates for back issues and volumes are available from Special Issues Sales Dept., 1155—16th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036. An annual index is available for $20. Standing orders are accepted. Back and current issues are available on microfilm. For further information, contact Special Issues Sales, ACS, 1155—16th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036. Published by the American Chemical Society from 20th and Northampton Sts., Easton, Pa., weekly except the last week in December. Second class postage paid at Washington, D.C., and at additional mailing offices. The American Chemical Society assumes no responsibility for the statements and opinions advanced by the contributors to its publications. Views expressed in the editorials are those of the editors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the American Chemical Society. Advertising Management CENTCOM, LTD. (For list of offices see page 69)
4
C&EN June 3, 1974
Editorial
Facts and Figures-1974 Spread throughout the 23 pages that make up C&EN's annual Facts and Figures section this year are more than 8000 individual bits of data. What do they all add up to? They provide, for one thing, a scorecard indicating how that amorphous mass known as the chemical industry and the individual sectors and firms of which it is comprised have been performing during the recent past. They also serve as a snapshot of the current status and stature of what continues to be one of the nation's most fast-growing and fast-changing industries, offering benchmarks for comparing its diverse components with one another or with other areas of economic activity. Like any compilation of statistics, however, the figures by themselves must be viewed with caution. The picture they present, for one thing, is rather bloodless and lacking in depth. It shows what has happened, but the reasons why often remain submerged. It is, after all, people who provide the industry's vital spark. Their decisions, triumphs, and mistakes are what really determine its overall well-being. Current strains in the national economy as a whole can make interpretation of the bare numbers especially difficult. Wherever dollars are used as a unit of measure, rampant inflation results in an upward bias of indeterminant significance. Sales, costs, investment, R&D outlays all have been showing marked increases, but the real meaning of these increases is clouded by the shrinking value of the dollar. Depreciation charges that fall far short of covering current replacement costs, even for plants built only a few years ago, and inventory valuations that fail to match current market prices tend to overstate companies' real profitability. The figures also provide clues to tomorrow's performance. But here, too, only if used with caution. Long-term trend lines can be quite misleading if used blindly to forecast future changes, especially short-term ones. In the heated economic environment of the past couple of years, for instance, output of several major chemical products—such as benzene, methanol, and vinyl acetate—rose much more rapidly than might have been expected judging solely from their growth rates of the previous 10 years. On the other hand, increases in the production of many more products—among them sulfuric and phosphoric acids, ethylene, propylene, vinyl chloride, and toluene—were constrained last year relative to previous long-term growth. In many cases, growth recently has been crimped by limitations in available plant capacity or by shortages and conflicting demands, often unforeseen and unplanned for, for raw materials, conditions which may curtail expansion even more severely this year. All in all, it is the uptrends that register most clearly in this year's Facts and Figures. Looking at the record from the perspective of time suggests, however, that growth in the chemical industry will not continue at its recent rate indefinitely nor follow the course of the recent past. But again, it is people—colleagues and competitors, in the U.S. arid overseas—responding with success or failure to shifting economic and social pressures who will set that course. Facts and Figures can serve as the chemical industry's current track record. In the months ahead, C&EN will continue to strive, week by week, to interpret that record in handicapping the industry's future prospects. David M. Kiefer Assistant Managing Editor, C&EN
C&EN EDITORIALS REPRESENT ONLY THE VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR AND AIM AT INITIATING INTELLIGENT DISCUSSION.
