ethylene for such products as milk, de tergents, and bleaches. For the future, drums, largely the 55-gal size, are seen surpassing bottles as the major blowmolded product. As yet, some snags exist in meeting the requirements of the U.S. Department of Transportation for drums, but sources say these dif ficulties should be resolved quickly. Permeability of the drums to hydrocar bons is one problem almost overcome. Extrusion coatings, mostly of lowdensity material, are the other large use for polyethylene. This use is growing more slowly than most others because of inroads of blow-molded containers on the market for paperboard contain ers extrusion-coated with polyethylene, especially for milk. New and unusual uses for polyethyl ene continue to be developed. Over the next three years film and drums of high-density material will gain much wider commercial use and be the big-volume use gain. Still, film and sheet use of low-density will grow and keep its dominance of total polyethyl ene use. Overall, long-term low-density poly ethylene demand should gain 8 to 10% per year, sources predict. High-density growth should be a little higher, or be tween 9 and 11% per year. Such gains bode well for a profitable product with a volume heading for more than 9 bil lion lb next year. π
International Global chemical role certain for Arabs Few doubt that the Arab countries eventually will draw on their consider able resources of oil and natural gas for use as petrochemical feedstocks. Rath er, the thinking now revolves around the likely effect the development will have on existing producers and mar kets. Peter B. Godfrey of London's Chem Systems International recently ana
lyzed the situation at an international seminar on the petrochemical industry. Held in Baghdad, the meeting was or ganized by Iraq's Ministry of Industry. The way Godfrey sees it, "Arab pet rochemicals will have a significant im pact on world markets during the next decade." Production plans now being implemented or considered by Arab countries indicate that the output vol-
Arab bloc will be major petrochemical supplier by 1990 Arab capacity
Millions of metric tons
Ethylene Propylene Butadiene Benzene o-Xylene p-Xylene Vinyl chloride Styrene Low-density polyethylene High-density polyethylene Polypropylene
6.03 0.59 0.19 0.65 0.15 0.21 1.17 0.79 2.29 0.57 0.25
U.S. gapb
15.70
West Europe gapb
%of gap
17.00 4.00 0.04 3.00 0.80 0.13 4.00 2.80 5.60 1.70 3.00
38%
—
—
0.50 1.40 0.50 1.30 3.00 1.70 5.40 2.50 2.40
38 46 30 16 39 47 42 23 10
C CLIMAX
MOLYBDENUM
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120% 59
—
—
1.60 0.01 0.3 1.20 1.50 1.00 0.15 0.20
41 1500 70 98 56 229 380 125
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%of gap
PROSPECTUS
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Flame retardants. A growing area that affects virtually everyone. An area where molybdenum from Climax has been in the forefront of new developments, new oppor tunities. Solid technical assistance from Climax is available to help assure contin ued progress with retardants. For a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n , contact H. F. Barry, Manager of Chemical Market Development, Climax Molybdenum -Com pany, 3475 Plymouth Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105; (313) 761-2300.
35% 15 475 22 19 162 29 28 41 34 8
Japan gapb
ι In 1990. b New capacity that will need to be added in 1980-90. Sources Chem Systems International
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urne of some products will represent a significant proportion of the additional demand that is expected to develop in the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan between 1980 and 1990. Godfrey confines his analysis to the likely petrochemical production capability in 1990 of the seven countries that comprise the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). These are Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. "Largescale petrochemical development in the Arab world obviously will center on these countries with their considerable raw material resources," he says.
Everything won't be smooth sailing for Arab chemical makers, of course. There will be considerable problems in building and operating complex petrochemical units in locations that lack the infrastructure and labor pool of the developed countries. "In virtually every case it will be necessary to bring in technological assistance from outside sources," Godfrey notes. Another problem will revolve around the marketing of the products when they become available. "The OAPEC countries form a natural trading bloc of their own. However, with certain exceptions, even this enlarged area could not support large-scale chemical pro-
auction," Godfrey reasons. "The world market has to be considered and this means that a decision is much more difficult in terms of the number of product and market variables that need to be examined." The most likely outlets for Arab petrochemicals in Godfrey's view are North America, Western Europe, and Japan, despite the fact that these areas are now the main suppliers of chemicals to world markets. But this situation could change in the 1980's. The substantial increases in demand that are forecast in these areas will call for a very high level of new investment and make heavy demands on available cash resources. Too, apart from the problem of likely feedstock shortages, companies will tend to give increasing attention to making products with the highest added-value rating to provide optimum return on capital and raw material inputs. So there may be a reluctance to invest in commodity chemicals if new reliable sources arise that are competitive in price and quality. "These trends could fit in very well with the desire of the Arab nations to build up their petrochemical industry," Godfrey believes. "At least for the first and second generation plants it will be sensible to concentrate on basic products with well-established technology. Then, as experience is built up, investment can move into the more complex downstream chemicals. In addition, since feedstock costs represent a sizable proportion of the finished value, this could enable the new producers with favorable feedstock prices to balance the disadvantage of their distance from the market place." Godfrey has analyzed the demand/ supply forecast through 1990 in the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan for a number of basic petrochemicals and their derivatives—ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, o- and p-xylene, vinyl chloride, styrene, low- and highdensity polyethylene, and polypropylene. With the exception of polypropylene in the U.S. and butadiene in Japan, forecast demand will far outstrip 1990 production capability in light of current investment plans. By 1990, Western Europe alone will need the equivalent of 30 to 35 new ethyleneproducing naphtha crackers over and above those built by 1980. "Comparison of this investment gap," as Godfrey calls it, "with forecast Arab capacity is probably more relevant than a simple comparison of Arab capacity as a proportion of total world capacity." Admittedly, he makes no allowance for domestic consumption of the products in Arab markets. Too, the figures he has used are based on projected nameplate capacity figures that are higher than eventual plant output. Nevertheless, it is obvious that potential Arab production of the chemicals in 1990 could supply a significant part of the new investment requirement elsewhere, he concludes. D
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