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Mind The (Emissions) Gap Jerald Schnoor is attending the Paris climate meeting on assignment for C&EN. He is a professor and codirector of the Center for Global & Regional Environmental Research at the University of Iowa and former editor-in-chief of Environmental Science & Technology.
nations. Of course, richer countries face peer pressure to cut emissions to a greater extent than low-income countries that might need cheap fossil fuels in the short term to improve living standards. After all, high-income countries have emitted most of the greenhouse gases stemming CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM predominates from human activities that are present in in Paris this week at the United Nations the atmosphere today and are responsible climate conference, the talks aiming to for the great majority of the warming that prevent global warming of 2 °C or more has already taken place. And high-income above preindustrial levels. Government countries have the financial means to tranrepresentatives are cautiously optimistic sition their economies from fossil fuels to because the Paris meeting has been framed renewables in a timely manner. strategically, unlike the last major climate But before the backslapping begins conference, held in Copenhagen in 2009. for the outcome of the Paris meeting, we For starters, most national pledges were must mind the emissions gap: Countries’ made before the Paris pledged emissions remeeting commenced, so ductions are not nearly everyone knows what to enough to solve the expect as an outcome. problem of climate Nearly 190 countries, repchange. In fact, they are resenting the source of barely enough to curtail some 98% of the world’s the current 2% annual MORE global emissions, already growth rate in worldwide ONLINE have ponied up commitgreenhouse gas emisFollow key developments ments to cutting global sions. So how much is connected to the Paris greenhouse gas emissions needed? climate change meeting at by 2025 or 2030. The truth is we need http://cop21.cenmag.org/ Officially called to double or triple the intended nationally decuts pledged so far. First, termined contributions or INDCs, these we need to level off emissions within are voluntary “bottom up” pledges unthe next five to 10 years and then drastilike the mandates in the Kyoto protocol, cally slash greenhouse gas emissions by a 1997 climate change accord. The Kyoto 50–70% as of 2050. Given current pledges, protocol prescribed precisely how much the gap between global emissions and levindustrialized nations were to cut emisels necessary to limit warming to less than sions, and the formal treaty was consid2 °C would widen from about an equivaered legally enforceable on those who rati- lent of 5 gigatons of carbon dioxide per fied it. As a consequence, the U.S. never year in 2020 to the equivalent of 12–14 Gt participated. of CO2 annually by 2030. That is why the Because INDCs are voluntary, the agreework in Paris is just beginning. Government expected to come out of Paris will ments should meet every five years or so likely not require formal ratification by the to update their pledges and ratchet down U.S. Senate. This feature guarantees greater emissions further. acceptance of the pact and bodes well for Even if all countries abide by their curits long-term success. rent pledges, we are not off the hook yet. It The Paris meeting and the pledging will require concerted effort and negotiaprocess have garnered the participation tions for decades to come. Climate change of almost all countries. Developing counis the defining environmental problem of tries are expected to have plans to manage this century. their greenhouse gas emissions, forests, and land use and to adapt to an alreadyJerry Schnoor changing climate—just like industrialized @JerryatCOP21 IAN LANGSDON/EPA/NEWSCOM
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