FEATURE
East Central Europe: An Environment in Transition Major changes in the governments and economies of this highly polluted region are improving air and water quality. JERALD L. S C H N O O R , JAMES N. GALLOWAY, AND BEDRICH MOLDAN
W
hen the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, a dramatic transition was set in motion that is now transforming the economies and the environment of countries in East Central Europe. The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, and former East Germany have metamorphosed from states with centrally planned economies to free-market states that are beginning to be competitive in the world marketplace. Following the change in government and the economic system, outmoded factories have been closed; new environmental laws have begun to be enforced; service industries, which tend to be cleaner than most industries, have emerged; and subsidies have been removed from overused natural resources. Perhaps most important, investment by multinational companies in newly privatized industries has resulted in the construction of modern plants and environmental control facilities. Emissions of pollutants and runoff from fertilizers are declining, and ambient air and water quality has improved, although this remains one of the worst polluted regions in Europe and the world. The area has depended on heavy industry supported by government subsidies on coal, water, fertilizers, and pesticides. Coal has been the backbone for power production and the smelting of ores; it has been a feedstock for the chemical industry and a home-heating fuel. Its use has resulted in massive emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and trace metals to the atmosphere. Emissions from power plants in the Czech Republic have had a devastating effect on the environment and human health (i). Now, industries have been restructured and new legislation has been passed, and these countries' governments understand that they cannot have economic development by polluting the environment and destroying their resource base. In the Czech Republic and Slovakia, for instance, the mining of high-
sulfur lignite has plummeted since 1989 because of a decline in industrial output, the removal of coal subsidies, and public pressure for better air quality. An economy in transition Following government changes in the region in 198991, the gross domestic product (GDP) began to fall because of the closure of outmoded factories whose goods were not competitive in the open market. In Poland, industrial output fell from a normalized basis of 100 in 1988 to a low of 58 in 1992. The Czech Republic's GDP also reached a minimum that year. A robust economic recovery is in progress in the region: Poland's GDP is increasing at about 6% per year, and the Czech Republic's is rising at 4-5% per year (2) (see Figure 1). Economic restructuring has benefited the environment. Energy use is falling in the region because coal and other fuel subsidies have been curtailed, so industries are becoming more efficient in their use of energy. The result is a major improvement in air and water quality. Polluting industries such as smelting, mining, and steel and chemical manufacturing have declined because they could not compete when paying the market price for natural resources. They have been replaced by more competitive industries including consumer products, automobiles, general manufacturing, and service industries. Industrial restructuring, particularly privatization, also is an unmistakable force for environmental change in all of the East Central European countries. Allowing multinational companies to purchase large or even controlling interests in local industries has brought much needed capital for modernizing plants, diversifying products, and meeting pollution control requirements—changes that allow companies to be competitive in the global marketplace. Among the companies with a presence in the re-
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Air pollution and the resulting toxic soil had killed expanses of forest in the former Czechoslovakia near Most. Replanting efforts begun in 1992 (inset) and reduced air emissions have resulted in new growth. (Courtesy Jerald L. Schnoor)
gion is Procter and Gamble, which has purchased half of the national detergent industry in the Czech Republic. Volkswagen now owns a leading portion of the Czech car company Skoda; General Motors manufactures the Opel Astra in Poland; and Fiat makes the new "World Car," the Cinquecento, in Poland (3). These companies manufacture fuel-efficient, modern vehicles that use unleaded gasoline—cars that will be sold locally and exported. Gone are the days of the now-collectible "Trabi," the highly polluting East German two-cylinder car. But development of the auto industry has also led to pollution problems and congestion in cities without highway systems to accommodate large numbers of motor vehicles. The average number of cars per 1000 inhabitants increased from 221 in 1989 to more than 287 in 1994 in the Czech Republic, a 30% increase in only five years (2). Direct foreign investment, by multinational companies and not by governments, has driven the economic transition. By comparison, the input of developmental assistance has been relatively small. Federal assistance from the United States to Eastern Europe has totaled about $2.7 billion since 1990, a small amount compared with the Marshall Plan launched 50 years ago to rebuild Europe after World War II. Most of the funding for environmental con-
trol facilities has come from a mixture of direct foreign investment, the governments themselves, and user charge systems that were instituted when subsidies were curtailed for water and energy resources. Environmental improvements have also come, in part, from industrial declines resulting from restructuring. Steel production declined in the Upper Silesia Region of southern Poland from 29 million metric tons per year in 1989 to 15 million metric tons in 1994. The industry was heavily subsidized and profoundly polluting in 1989. The mining industry, including coal, lignite, limestone, sand and gravel, and brick clay, declined between 20% and 50% since 1989 (2). Mines that could no longer produce coal and coke at world market prices were closed. Export sales for these products declined. Less polluting service industries, such as stock investment firms, travel services, telecommunications, and computer software companies, have replaced some of the heavy industries in the economies of the region. Water use and wastewater discharges were essentially free; now that they cost money, conservation is on the rise. User charges are deposited into national accounts for pollution and hazardous waste control. In Poland, $300 million was collected in 1991 (3). The Czech Republic built 17 new and upgraded VOL.31, NO. 9, 1997 /ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY / N E W S * 4 1 3 A
FIGURE 1
Gross domestic product and energy consumption in the Czech Republic From 1989 to 1993, gross domestic product plummeted with energy consumption. Although GDP is steadily improving, energy consumption is not rising.
FIGURE 2
Coal mining in the Czech Republic and Slovakia Coal mining in this region rose sharply during the Communist period from 1947 to 1989. Much of the coal mined was high-sulfur lignite. Declines have been precipitous as the countries' economies change.
sewage treatment plants with these funds in 1994, but dozens more are needed. In 1989, the country had 2500 municipalities serving 2.5 million people with no domestic wastewater treatment (i). Because of legislation passed in 1991 and 1992, the Czech Republic now has a law for safe disposal of all solid and hazardous wastes, but implementation of 4 1 4 A • VOL. 31, NO. 9, 1997 / ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY / NEWS
the law and cleanup of the old waste sites are still problems. It is estimated that the Czech Republic now spends 2.5-3.5% of its GDP on environmental controls (2), somewhat more than the 2% of GDP spent in the United States.
A changing energy mix Decreases in government subsidies in East Central Europe have had a dramatic effect on energy consumption. Consumption of primary energy sources— coal, natural gas, oil, and hydroelectric power— dropped from 15% to 45% in these countries. Energy consumption per capita in East Central Europe also has fallen markedly. It remains two to three times higher than in Western Europe. Progress is fastest in former East Germany because of its reunification with West Germany. Germany invests almost 100 billion Deutschmarks per year ($65 billion) in infrastructure and economic improvements for an East German population of 16 million ($4000 per person annually). Although improvements are not as rapid as some would like, there has been a general increase in the standard of living because of rising incomes and pollution decreases as a result of new investment in pollution control facilities. But coal is still subsidized to varying degrees in the region. Germany has a preference law inducing industries to buy German coal and coke, and it repays them for the difference between world market prices and the German price that was paid. Germany has been somewhat slow to remove subsidies and price supports; Poland and the Czech Republic have moved faster. In the Czech Republic, fuel switching has played an important role in air quality improvements in major cities where winter temperature inversions made it necessary to wear face masks at times. Coal mining in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, particularly lignite coal, has declined rapidly since the end of the Communist period (Figure 2). Natural gas from Russia has replaced much of the lignite (high-sulfur soft coal) that was used for heating homes. Switching from coal to natural gas is about 50% complete, and it is progressing rapidly. With a decline in subsidies for coal, the relative price of natural gas is not that much greater than coal, especially considering cleaning and maintenance of coal bins and stoves. Burning highsulfur coal and emitting the combustion gases to lowelevation chimneys were the greatest causes of sulfur and particulate pollution in the cities and adverse health effects such as asthma and emphysema. Some energy policy decisions have been controversial. In the Czech Republic, the Dukovany nuclear power plant produces 22% of the electricity generated; and, following the planned start-up of the Temelin nuclear power station, 40% of the country's electricity will be nuclear (2). The policy decision has been protested vehemently by environmental activists. Nuclear power brings with it the risks of operation and disposal of nuclear wastes that other countries have sought to avoid. The decision by the Slovak government to divert flow from the Danube River to create a 720-megawatt hydropower plant at Gabcikovo has also been controversial. Hungary has sued Slovakia for diverting water and changing the river ecology, and the issue is now in World Court at The Hague.
There are small increases in the use of renewable fuels—wind, hydro, and biomass—in the region. Wind power is increasing most rapidly in Germany with the use of large turbines located in highland areas with good wind potential.
Air pollution and acid deposition Emissions of sulfur dioxide (S0 2 ), particulates, and nitrogen oxides have decreased throughout the region. The first declines resulted from less industrial output and higher prices for energy fuels; more recently, industrial restructuring and modernization have driven the declines. S0 2 concentrations in ambient air have decreased from an average of 100 micrograms (ug) m":s to less than half that amount in cities throughout the region since 1985 (Figure 3). Nevertheless, health standards are still exceeded on an episodic basis. The decline in regional S0 2 concentrations actually began in the mid-1980s because of emission controls in the former West Germany and the rest of Western Europe. Improvements in S0 2 concentrations in ambient air are continuing as a result of emission reductions within East Central Europe. Yet, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides have increased in cities in recent years, primarily because of more automobiles. The problem of S0 2 and particulate matter is still severe, but concerns about air pollution may evolve eventually into an urban problem resulting from automobile emissions in congested cities. Acid deposition remains a serious problem, in part because particulate emission controls have increased as fast as or faster than S0 2 emission controls. Particulates contain dust and basic materials that can neutralize acid rain. Thus, precipitation has actually become more acidic (4), and acid deposition remains a concern because of its effect on forests, buildings and monuments, and health. Although forest decline is still a problem, foresters have made progress by replanting some devastated areas. Approximately 200,000 hectares (ha) in the Erzgebirge Mountain region of southern East Germany and the Czech Republic were completely destroyed by air pollution during the 1980s (1). But much of the area is in a state of regrowth now. Direct effects of S0 2 gas on vegetation have declined. Norway spruce trees [Picea abies), which were not indigenous to the area, are very susceptible to S0 2 . These trees have been replaced mostly with less susceptible Colorado spruce, birch, aspen, and poplar. Metals deposition from air pollution has decreased in the region by roughly 30% since 1985, according to model calculations (5). It seems that irreversible damage to soils has been avoided in the region with the exception of seriously affected areas near local industries and smelters, especially in southern Poland (6).
Decline in pesticide, fertilizer use Declining price supports for crops, increasing prices of agricultural chemicals, and open market competition have caused a decline in agriculture in the region since 1989. Decreases in agricultural production have been pronounced in mountain and hillslope areas where farming is less favorable. Marginal lands have been taken out of production, abandoned, or in some cases, replanted as forests.
FIGURE 3
Sulfur dioxide concentrations in the Czech Republic Measurements taken in Prague, at Ostrava, near the Czech border with Poland, and in North Bohemia, near the border with the former East Germany, show a decline in sulfur dioxide emissions since the mid-1980s.
FIGURE 4
Nitrogen-based fertilizer use Since 1988, there has been a 30-50% decline in application rates of nitrogen fertilizers.
Herbicide applications decreased by threefold between 1989 and 1994 in the Czech Republic. Fertilizer applications of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium have declined by 30-50% in Poland, former East Germany, and the Czech Republic since 1989 (Figure 4). Surprisingly, the decrease in chemical inputs has not led to serious declines in most crop yields (kilogram [kg] per ha), which suggests that too many chemicals were being applied. The decline in fertilizer and pesticide applications results in real benefits for the environment: less nitrate and pesticides in groundwater and surface water runoff. This decline in agricultural production seems to have levVOL. 31, NO. 9, 1997/ ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY / NEWS • 4 1 5 A
FIGURE 4 Cadmium buildup in soil High concentrations of cadmium threaten gardens and crops in some "hot spots" in the region. The problem is most acute in the region of southern Poland near the city of Katowice.
Source: Rautengarten, A. Master of Science Thesis, University of Iowa, Iowa City, 1995
eled off, as has the recent decline in nitrogen fertilizer applications. Atmospheric deposition of metals and application of phosphate fertilizers containing trace amounts of cadmium have contaminated agricultural land, but recent surveys concluded that metals contamination is not a serious problem for crops on a regional scale (2). However, cadmium, lead, zinc, and arsenic are potential problems at hot spots around some major industries. A map of cadmium accumulation from atmospheric deposition and its potential mobility in soils of the region is presented in Figure 5. A hot spot lies in southern Poland, near the town of Katowice, where pollution caused by smelting and power production is severe. These soils have accumulated cadmium to such an extent that crops are taking up the toxic metal. Liming of soils and careful monitoring of crops are needed mere to avoid contamination of the food supply. The biggest change in agriculture in East Central Europe is socioeconomic. There are fewer producers and fewer farms. Farms are getting bigger, and some agricultural companies are taking over large acreages. But the total fraction of arable land (cultivated crops) is still 65-75% of land use in the region, which is much larger than the average for European Union countries of —55% (7, 8).
Future investments and improvements The transitional improvement in the air and water quality of East Central Europe and the significant financial investment now taking place for modernization of industry should allow further environmental improvements in the future. A central problem in this region is the that financial resources are scarce and must be carefully invested to achieve the greatest environmental improvement. A mixture of market forces and government policies has played a role in the transition, but now further investment is 4 1 6 A • VOL. 31, NO. 9, 1997 / ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY / NEWS
needed for industrial modernization and pollution prevention and control. Rich Western countries needed 30 years to reduce serious air and water pollution in cities like London, Pittsburgh, and Dusseldorf after governments required emission controls circa 1950. As the economy continues to strengthen in East Central Europe, phased investments and multistage upgrading of pollution control facilities will be required. More stringent automobile emission control regulations will be needed because the number of cars continues to grow exponentially.
The environment is still in a very serious state in this region. One legacy is t h e toxic a n d h a z a r d o u s wastes that were deposited in soils and sediments during the past 50 years. These will require cleanup investments from governments that will be difficult to achieve in the immediate future. But as the economy grows, investment capital may be available for pollution prevention and control in the future.
Acknowledgments We thank the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, for supporting the research upon which this article is based. JLS also received financial support from the Environmental Health Sciences Research Center at the University of Iowa. We are grateful for valuable discussions with the project team: Randy Krutzfield, Astrid Rautengarten, Peter laffe, Beverly Shimada, Sylvia Prieler, Krzysztof Olendrzynski, William Stigliani, Stefan Anderberg, Jurgen Blazejczak, and Sander de Bruyn.
References (1) Moldan, B.; Schnoor, J. L. Environ. Set Technol. 1992, 26, 14-21. (2) Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic. Report on the Environment in the Czech Republic in 1995; Academic Publishing House: Prague, 1996. (3) Nowicki, M. Environment in Poland—Issues and Solutions; Ministry of Environmental Protection, Natural Resources and Forestry: Warsaw, 1992. (4) Marquardt, W.; Bruggeman, E.; Heintzenberg, J. Ambio 1996, 3, 215-16. (5) Rautengarten, A. M.; Schnoor, J. L.; Anderberg, S.; Olendrzynski, K.; Stigliani, W. M. Water Air Soil Pollut. 1995, 85, 737-42. (6) Krutzfield, R. Master's of Science Thesis, University of Iowa, Iowa City, 1996. (7) Prieler, S.; Hamann, B.; Anderberg, S.; Stigliani, W. Land Use Change in Europe—Scenarios for a Project Area in East Germany Poland and the Czech Republic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis: Laxenburg, Austria, 1996; Working Paper WP-96-40. (8) Europe's Environment—The Dobris Assessment, Stanner, D.; Bourdeau, P., Eds.; European Environment Agency, European Commission: Copenhagen, 1995. Jerald L. Schnoor is codirector of the Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research at the University of Iowa. James N. Galloway is professor and chair of the Department of Environmental Science at the University of Virginia, and Bedrich Moldan is professor and director at the Charles University Environmental Center, Prague.
