appeared set for a replay of the 1960's. However, Holden doesn't believe that those mistakes are about to happen again. Even though chemical demand dropped sharply this year, present overcapacity hasn't triggered a scramble to reduce prices. Instead, prices have remained firm and now are rising. Expansion plans haven't been canceled or delayed significantly. Evidence is accumulating, according to Holden, that the chemical industry is moving from a period of rapidly changing technology Blisters of Kodar are put in equipment to one of less dramatic technical for heat-sealing to coated substrates advances. Two changes are especompany underlines the new poly- cially important, he says. First, it is ester's safety, stating the product improbable that the major process is lawful for food packaging use improvements of recent years ever under Food Additive Regulation 21 will be duplicated. This means that CFR 121.2533 and also has the De- new plants will no longer possess a partment of Agriculture's statement significant variable cost advantage of acceptability for packaging over older plants. Thus, pressure use with meat and poultry. D for all producers to expand at the same time will be gone. Secondly, the huge capital requirements of the overall economy during the next 10 years will have a continuing inflationary impact on the price of capital goods. New plants will become more expensive By the middle of next year, the ex- and will require a higher and higher pected economic recovery probably selling price for their products to will return chemical operations to provide a given return on investthe more enjoyable levels of 1974, ment. Thus, says Holden, a deciwhen the industry was operating at sion to expand will be made only full capacity. But don't look for when a tight market and nondechemical companies to return to the clining prices can be assured. D "feast or famine" days of the late 1960's, when overcapacity forced chemical companies to cut prices and profits plummeted. Instead, the future probably will find the chemical industry operating at sustained full capacity, with only periods of shortage. "Affirmative action" against age This is the scenario sketched by discrimination—ensuring "the effiDr. Neil D. Holden, manager of cient, proper, and humane utilizaUnion Carbide's economic services tion of experienced, middle-aged, department, at last week's Confer- and older engineers" by all emence Board meeting in New York ployers of electrical and electronics City on the 1976 business outlook. engineers—is urged by the 175,000Holden notes that, although the member Institute of Electrical & industry has just gone through the Electronics Engineers Inc. IEEE's worst recession since World War II, policy statement, expected to win chemical prices have remained sur- easy approval by its board of direcprisingly firm. Right now, the in- tors last Thursday, will be followed dustry is operating at less than 70% by a push for "affirmative action" of capacity. Inventory-to-shipment through its industry relations proratios are 15% above historic levels. grams and other activities (but no Sales are off 35%. But the demand numerical goals will be set). weakness that existed in the past Calling itself "the largest profew months is now giving way to fessional engineering society in the price increases as sales begin to world," IEEE has been studying show signs of improvement. possible age bias for some time. Looking back to the third quarter What perhaps brought things to a of 1974, Holden recalls that the in- head, says a spokesman, is the case dustry was operating at full capaci- of 62 engineers aged 40 and above ty. Inventories had been reduced to laid off last January in Great Neck, irreducible lows. As they did in N.Y., by Sperry Rand Corp., who 1965, chemical companies cranked are charging age discrimination in up expansion plans and the stage state human rights proceedings.
Chemicals outlook: full capacity in 1976
Engineering society tackles age bias
IEEE's research finds no clearcut pattern of age bias in all areas. A survey this year shows that most members do not believe there is age discrimination, but women and those aged 45 or older think there is age discrimination against their groups. Another study concludes that "the electronic equipment industry shows a substantial discrimination bias against older engineers." However, aerospace shows a bias in favor of older engineers, with seniority respected in layoffs. Age bias also is hitting chemists (C&EN, April 7, page 9). An American Chemical Society task force is seeking outside funding to study the problems of "mature chemists." And a task force on discriminatory employment practices finds evidence that age is "a relevant factor" in termination and unemployment of ACS members, and is a barrier to their re-employment. D
Japan moves to spur raw materials imports Special financing is now on tap for Japan's lagging ore and wood pulp imports. At the urging of the Ministry of International Trade & Industry, the government-backed Export-Import Bank of Japan now will cover 70% of an import bill for copper ore or concentrates with loans at 8% interest. Loans at the same interest are available to importers of bauxite, wood pulp, and ores or concentrates of lead, molybdenum, nickel, tungsten, and zinc for 60% of their purchases. The Exim Bank is providing about $95 million for this measure during the rest of fiscal 1975, which ends next March. MITI earlier forecast a 30% slump in Japanese imports of these eight commodities in fiscal 1975 compared to the previous year's $2.8 billion total. If the new financing is fully taken up, the shortfall will be only 10%. The catch is that the preferential-rate financing will be extended to imports of these commodities from developing countries only. MITI's object is to stabilize trade with resources-rich developing nations in an effort to keep Japan's raw materials lifelines secure. Tokyo's official forecast of a 15% rise in value of imports in fiscal 1975 has been trimmed sharply by subsequent events. Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's largest trading firm, now estimates a 3% gain, whereas the Trade Conference, an advisory body to the prime minister, sees a rise of less than 1% in imports. Sept. 22, 1975 C&EN
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