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Plant shipments of chemical products declined in August by about $90 mil lion from the month before to $2.97 billion, after allowance for seasonal variations. The dip was the first since last January and marked the first time since February that monthly shipments fell below $1 billion. One month, certainly, doesn't es tablish a pattern. August's figures, in fact, may be pretty much a statisti cal quirk. The best of seasonal ad justment techniques may not wipe out all the short-term fluctuations in a series of economic data. Actually, shipments of chemicals and allied products rose by more than $130 million from the previous month, if the seasonal factor is ignored. But that is less than the more than $200 million increase which is usual for the month. Chemicals' performance was typi cal of what took place throughout manufacturing. Total manufactur ers' shipments were off by 2 % in August, again after seasonal adjust ment. Figures for September, when they are released in about two weeks, should get close scrutiny. If the de cline in shipments continues, econo mists may have to review some of their optimistic views regarding nearterm prospects.
But most other economic indica tors continue to be favorable. De spite a decline of 2 % in new orders, manufacturers' backlogs of unfilled orders rose in August for the 20th consecutive month. Unemployment is edging lower. New cars seem to have won an enthusiastic initial re ception from consumers. Capital spending is still rising. The biggest fear, for the moment at least, is less that the economy may run out of steam any time soon than that prosperity may get out of hand, with demand running ahead of sup ply, shortages of skilled labor de veloping, and inflationary pressures building up. After six years of rela tive stability, wholesale prices since last winter have been slowly climbing. Since both the labor force and indus trial capacity are increasing rapidly, though, dangers of inflation still seem more potential than immediate. The consensus now is that good times are likely to continue well into 1966, with gross national product ap proaching, perhaps even surpassing, $700 billion next year. At $700 bil lion, next year would show a gain not quite as good as this year's gain (if GNP hits $670 billion in 1965 as ex pected). But for the sixth year of steady business expansion, that's not bad.
RATIO: Inventories to Shipments Chemicals and Allied Products 1964
All Manufacturing
1965
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VENTRON METAL HYDRIDES DIVISION CONGRESS STREET BEVERLY, MASSACHUSETTS
C&EN
OCT. 18, 1965
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